Industrialisation has raised global temperatures by 1°C. Experts predict a further 1°C rise by 2052, even if we see big cuts to emissions. The Paris Accord of 2015 brought the world’s countries together in the fight against climate change. So far the only outcome has been hot air from politicians.
In the medium to long term, everyone will benefit from controlling global temperature. In the short term there will be cost and pain for some. Everyone thinks it a good idea and believes something should be done but governments and politicians need to now do the hard things like putting in place targets with carrots [subsidies] and sticks [taxation]. Because so many people are not immediately affected, they are not worried, so our politicians are not under pressure to do anything – yet. So our politicians will probably do the very minimum at the latest possible time.
For investors, it is certainly not business as usual.
Crops will fail and some places will become too hot to live in or to visit. Farming will be more volatile and less profitable but agricultural commodity prices will increase. Extremes of weather will become commonplace but Catastrophe Insurance will cost more.
The biggest loser will be the coal industry. This pits India and China against the West. They both see proposals to reduce coal consumption as an attack on their energy policy and energy security.
Oil companies will lose out as the value of their oil reserves fall in value being no longer exploitable. Renewables will benefit from increased demand and reduced input costs and may become viable without subsidies. Nuclear power for base load generation will make a comeback with uranium prices rising from the doldrums.
Electric vehicles are predicted to account for 60% of all new vehicles by 2030. VW and GM will benefit most because of their ability to efficiently build mass market vehicles but Tesla is likely to be taken over.
Toyota is experimenting with Hydrogen engines and with electric trucks that have a higher weight to power ratio.